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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."